Austin's Analysis

[Austin]

So, I'm not really into the whole edgic thing - seeing your own edit is kinda cool, but figuring out how much screentime everyone got relative to the others...eh. It's too much effort - I'll let Ashley do that, if she wants to. What I do like in Edgic, however, is the whole Contender thing - so I'm gonna choose my four contender's every round, and why I think their playing well.

1. Pete: Pete is, aside from possibly Jim, by far the most socially active player. And, I think he's thinking the most out of anyone here - he's already working to put a target on Jim's back, not for the near future, but for down the line, which is very smart play in my opinion. No one has had anything bad to say about the kid, which means a lot, especially with all these people in the game.

2. Jim: Jim is, at the moment, in a very good spot. He's getting tons of Positive SPV from everyone, even more than Pete - but he's also being much more obvious about it. I think he's on cruise control until merge, but much like yours truly, isn't going to make it much further from there. I want Jim to succeed, it'd be cool to see since I like the guy, but his long-term prospects worry me. For now though, he's solid.

3. Vince: It kinda pains me to put Vince this high, because he's WAAAAAAAAY over-playing - I've literally lost track of the number of alliances this dude has made. He'll be fine for the near future, probably make it to merge, but unless he's willing to slit a bunch of throats, and is able to do it a good manner, he won't be able to win. I do think its possible, which is why I'm putting him in the contender list, just cause in my experience the guy is insanely likable - I'm just not sure how likely it is.

4. Natalie: Natalie has a lot of baggage from Warriors 4 with her - Katie/Jim are already hesitant to work with her because of it. However, she's making an effort to rectify it, and if she uses the target properly to get deep, before people realize she's not being an awful person, she could be at the end with a legitimate chance to win.

These will probably change as time goes on - I just haven't got a feeling for the people playing under the radar, versus those who just aren't all that active. When I get a better sense of that, it won't just be the "power players" here.

[Austin]

Very interesting round, really shook stuff up. I'm including the post-tribal blow up because, well, why not? Screw strict episode parameters, I'm a rebel.

1. Pete: Pete's holding on to that stranglehold he has over Lomand, and I don't think a lot of people are realizing just how well connected he is. Given all the people playing awfully, even if Lomand goes full Ulong, he's making it to a swap, and he'll be fine in pretty much any configuration there.

2. Jim: He's a threat, but he's a safe threat at the moment. His longitudinal prospects are worrying, but I think he definitely has a loot of room to maneuver moving forward, especially with the trainwreck that is Lomand.

3. Aras: OK, I know this sounds insane, but hear me out. This dude has shown himself as someone who trusts in his allies, is loyal, and is stepping way the fuck back from all the drama going on in Lomand. He's lying low, but he's making himself valuable to the people in power, in a way that keeps him out of the line of fire. A very, very good longterm strategy, if he can continue to capitalize on it.

4. Laura: On no one's radar at the moment, and has a bunch of people wanting to ally with her. She'll make it to merge unless she gets a bad tribe swap, and there I think she can do a lot of subtle damage. She's a dark horse in this competition, but at the moment she's leading on more apparent threats like Vince or Angie.

Vince has fallen off, after the three votes he got - having said that he handled it very well, especially compared to Joe, who while righteous, was way way way too vocal. Jim's frustrated with Natalie, and while I think she's not going anywhere soon, a swap could be bad for her unless she regroups.

[Austin]

A little late (I'm sure everyone cares deeply) but here are my contenders for this round. Also, very glad I keep taking them off the round before they get booted, its pretty convenient.

1. Aras: Somehow, someway, Aras has catapulted himself away from the bottom of the tribe, on absolutely no one's radar, and has solid relayion ships across the board. This is amazing - good on ya', bro.

2. Pete: Pete's in an interesting spot. These players aren't the emotional type, so I don't see them going apeshit at him for the cross tribal alliance Natalie revealed - we're in this odd, new era where putting strategy into the open isn't a death sentence. Still,his stock falls with the cross tribal reveal, and since Aras' is rising, he's down to #2.

3. Vince: With a swap coming up, Vince is good. He's in the middle of old Lomand, and has a good head on his shoulders. Now that he knows where overplaying can lead him, I think he'll make it to merge.

4. Jim: Old Ossa is fractured, and Jim was seen as a power player. He still has connections he can use and room to maneuver, but this swap may make it or break it for him.

[Austin]

Oh, how quickly things change. Well, for some anyway/

1. Aras: As I thought, this swap didn't hurt Aras...at all. If anything, he's the swing between Jim/Katie and Parvati/So/Abi, so even if Lomand loses the next two challenges, he should be good. He might be fourth on the tribe, or maybe Abi is, but of the four there, he's also the most likely to have the likability to win this game, and he's making it to merge with them.

2. Pete: I'm not sure how much this swap has affected Pete's alliances, but he's not going anywhere regardless. Ossa isn't tight enough to vote him, Vince, and Joe off 1-2-3, and even if they were, Pete would be the last to go, which means he makes it to merge, where he has all the options in the world.

3. Vince: I'm not getting off this Vince bandwagon. I don't think he has much of anything solid going on, alliance wise, but he has relationships that will carry him into the merge. Granted, he might be a threat there, but I also think he can slip under people's radars, if he's levelheaded enough.

4. Laura: She has an idol, she has likability, and she has more sway than Keith or Woo. She's making it to merge, and ?I'd be surprised if she's not in our Final Five - what drops her lower for me is, I don't know if she has the savvyness to get herself to FTC.

Jim...oh Jim. You were doing so well, but you're setting yourself up for a Marcus-esque fall. Why he feels safe is beyond me, this swap could not have gone worse for him. He needs to bank on Aras AND Abi to side with him and Katie, which is unlikely to occur, and I also think that, if she sees the writing on the wall for Jim, Katie won't hesitate to cut his throat.

[Austin]

Nav it's your consistent likes that keep me going. <3

[Vince "Dirt" Sly]

Aww, bro. You had too much faith in me.